So you saying there is a chance...

So with the FCS playoffs around the corner a number of teams still have hopes of making the field of 24 for their chance at standing atop the mountain in Frisco, TX. This past week cleared up some of the speculation with the first four teams punching tickets to the playoff by getting the auto-bids from their respective conferences. San Diego (Pioneer), Wofford (SoCon), Jacksonville St (Ohio Valley), and Central Conn St (Northeast) can all rest a but easier knowing this week is more about pride then wondering if they have done enough.

So what we shall do is go conference by conference and look at see who still has a shot, who is all but a lock, and who’s bubble will burst after this past week. The number of worthy teams hasn’t been this high in a long time, some good teams will be left out no matter what. About 30 teams can say they have a case and I will go thru every single one and tell you who will and who won’t make come selection this Sunday.

Big Sky

We start off with the biggest conference on the FCS level and the one with the most haziness. The Big Sky will be kicking themselves for the showing in non-conference when they faced up with the Missouri Valley and performed very poorly going only 3-6 with a couple of bad home losses. Now while teams like Northern Arizona and Eastern Washington has bounced back is it too little too late?

Southern Utah 8-2 (6-1)

V. Northern Arizona

How about the Thunderbirds, 6-5 last to currently 8-2 and a chance to win the Big Sky outright and the auto-bid with a home win versus the Lumberjacks. Now naturally things go into absolute chaos if they lose, but being one of the few Big Sky teams with a solid non-conference win (UNI at home), a loss doesn’t completely knock them out if Weber St also wins on Saturday. The loss on the road at Sac St really stings but that won’t matter much if they take care of business on Saturday

Weber St 8-2 (6-1)

V. Idaho St

The second of the three teams at 6-1 in the Big Sky that Week 7 loss to So Utah means they need a win, one they should get, and a loss by Southern Utah to get the auto bid. Though as long as the Wildcats don’t loss they will be comfortably in the playoffs, the auto bid would give them a Top 8 seed and week off before starting their playoff run

Northern Arizona 7-3 (6-1)

@Southern Utah
This is a really interesting case…a win doesn’t 100% guarantee them an invitation but it would make it really hard to knock them out. The question the committee has to ask themselves, how much stock do you put into the 17-15 loss to Montana when Nate Cookus got ejected on an extremely questionable targeting penalty. That being said the blowout loss at home to Western Illinois doesn’t look good on the resume

Montana 7-3 (5-2)

@Montana St

One of the best rivalries on the FCS level will decide the fate of the Grizz. A loss will surely knock them out the playoffs as the Bobcats are having down year and none of the bubble teams can afford a loss, let alone a loss to a unranked team. Just like Northern Arizona, a win doesn’t 100% guarantee them a spot in the playoffs. They could easily be the best team not to make the field

Eastern Washington 6-4 (5-2)

V. Portland State

The only reason why we are talking about Eastern is because of their recent history and how much it would hurt not to have one of the most recognized FCS teams not in the playoffs. But lets face it, even with a predicted win over winless Portland St, the odds are really stacked against any 7 win team making the field this year. It does help the Eagles cause that their best win is a road victory at Montana

Big South

From the largest conference to the smallest…the Big South is going thru a lot of transition with Coastal Carolina leaving last year and Liberty leaving this year. And while Campbell and North Alabama will join the ranks this year was just odd. But, guess what, this is the conference that could really make things interesting if both teams get in

Monmouth 9-1 (4-0)

@Kennesaw St

So another week, another de-facto conference championship game. If it could be as good as what we saw in the NEC then there are a few teams that should be worried. Look, Monmouth doesn’t have a lot of great wins, it just has wins. The 14 point loss to Albany is looking worse and worse as the season goes on but it won’t matter if they win Saturday. A loss makes them an interesting case, can you really leave out a 9 win team that feasted on a bunch of down programs and the Big South?

Kennesaw St 9-1 (4-0)

V. Monmouth

This program reminds my of when Old Dominion first came on to the stage about a decade ago. Now I hope they don’t get fooled like ODU did and move up in class only to get beat down every week but that’s a different topic. Back to the topic at hand, just like Monmouth, Kennesaw St is in an interesting spot. After a opening, four point, road loss to Samford (after a long weather delay) the Owls have run off 9 straight. Outside an impressive road win at Montana St, they have no solid wins and a non D-1 win. But the same question holds true, can you really leave a 9 win team out of the playoffs?

CAA

Ok, now we get to where things start to get tricky and why some teams are gonna be real upset come Selection Sunday. The CAA has probably the best story outside of Austin Peay (more on them later) in Elon. Along with the Phoenix sit three other teams that could either get in with wins or be wondering what could have been.

James Madison 10-0 (7-0)

@ Elon

Ok, these guys are a lock and with a win would be the #1 overall seed and the favorite to repeat. No need to go on

Stony Brook 8-2 (6-1)

@ Maine

Long Island’s Team! (yea kinda borrowed that from Northwestern). The Seawolves have looked really good since losing the Delware and with a win should get a top 8 seed, though a few teams are in that 6-8 range. But here’s the thing, if they lose they could miss the playoffs all together. Yes a lot of things with have to fall in place but late losses to unranked teams can doom you, especially to a below .500 team

Elon 8-2 (6-1)

V. James Madison

Like I said at the start, Elon is one of the best stories this season. Since joining the CAA the Phoenix haven’t had the success that they had while in the SoCon. In fact this will be their best finish since changing conferences in 2007. With that being said, just like Stony Brook, they can go from potentially being a Top 8 seed to missing out all together. They will most likely finish 8-3 and overall have a negative scoring difference (currently at -13) and currently have a crazy 8-0 record in one position games. This could easily be a situation where the Phoenix gets left out because someone else’s profile is better. That being said, hard to knock someone with four Top 25 wins

New Hampshire 7-3 (5-2)

@Albany

Now we are back to the “A win doesn’t assure you a playoff birth” line with the Wildcats. Last weeks win at home against Elon put them back into the conversation but these guys need some help. They probably need a win and a couple others to lose (NAU, UNI, S. Dakota, W. Illinois come to mind) to not have to really worry but double digits losses to James Madison, Stony Brook, and Holy Cross (woodshed beatdown, gulp) don’t help the cause. A loss and you can forget about it

Delaware 7-3 (5-2)

@Villanova

If you haven’t noticed yet, there are a lot of tightly packed teams that the selection committee has to sift thru and Delaware is right there with about 10 to 18 teams. And just like a majority of them, its basically the same where they have “solid but not great” win(s) and a bad loss or two. Delaware has a solid win at Stony Brook but a loss at Towson hurts. Unfortunately for the Blue Hens, having both ‘Nova and Richmond have down years makes their case a little less promising

Missouri Valley

Now we come to the conference that pound for pound is the best. But with being the best means you beat each other up and this year is no different and might even be the worst time for it. All six ranked teams still have a shot at making the postseason, but depending on who wins Saturday as few as two might get the invite. Lets not forget Youngstown St, who would even make the playoffs after being runner-up last year

North Dakota St. 9-1 (6-1)

@ Illinois St

Just like James Madison, very much in the playoffs and still have a shot at the #1 seed. And just like James Madison can make a team very unhappy if the play spoiler and knock off the Redbirds in Normal

Northern Iowa 6-4 (5-2)

V. Indiana St

Look, they will finish with 7 wins (Indiana St is really bad) and 6 in conference but with that being said, they need lots of help…that is how good the field is. Last year or two years ago we wouldn’t have this conversation but they really need to look good and hope others look bad to sneak in the playoffs. Those early season, bone crushing losses to SUU and W. Illinois are gonna bite them big

South Dakota St. 8-2 (5-2)

@ South Dakota

Yet another team who pretty much has their ticket punched, Jackrabbits are mostly going for seeding at this point. A loss means they would have to play next week but a win gives them a week off and blows up the Coyotes chances of getting in. Oh MVFC, how much fun you are

Western Illinois 7-3 (4-3)

V. Southern Illinois

Ok, my alma mata is in a weird spot…lose and they are basically out (really don’t see any 7 wins teams making it), win and most likely be the 9th seed and get home game but have to travel on the road the rest of the way. Now of course this year that isn’t a bad thing since they are 6-1 on the road. But seriously, can people actually show up to a game?

South Dakota 7-3 (4-3)

V. SDSU

Well, we have reached the team who is in limbo the most. Here is the problem, early wins at WIU (nearly blew it) and then Youngstown St (blew it but salvaged it at the end) have been overshadowed by them losing 3 of 4 all to the upper rung of the league. Now they have the Jackrabbits coming to town and if they don’t win all that early season success goes bye-bye. And these guys are a solid team but its hard to start 6-0 and finish 1-4 and make the playoffs…ask Western last year

Illinois State 6-4 (4-3)

V. NDSU

Ok to be honest, I don’t think they get in even with a win and help but stranger things can happen. Back to Back losses have really put them on life support, they have a pulse but the Bison can really end things. Again another team who started red hot (4-0) only to suffer at the meat of the schedule

Ohio Valley

This year in the OVC has been no different then in recent memory…basically its Jacksonville St and whoever else. This year that “whoever else” has been an amazing surprise in Austin Peay. Probably not gonna get in the playoffs but still, the 7 wins is the more than the past five years combined (7 to 3). I hope this isn’t a Indiana State deal of a couple years ago where they had success, never made the playoffs, and then became really bad again after the coach left for “greener pastures”

Austin Peay 7-4 (6-1)

V. Eastern Illinois

Ok, we talked about how the OVC had already crowned its champion (Jacksonville St) but they still do have an outside shot at a second member in the playoffs. The Governors have four losses but three are against FBS teams and Jacksonville St…none of those are bad losses. A win versus the Panthers gives the committee and interesting profile to consider…they don’t have any really special wins but a potential 8-1 versus FCS schools has to mean something right?

Southern Conference

Here we have a conference that is like the OVC where the auto bid has already been decided (Wofford) but also has teams that can say they have a shot but really can’t afford to falter this weekend. It doesn’t help that one will instantly be eliminated as two of the three teams with a shot go head-to-head

Furman 7-3 (6-1)

@Samford

Furman is on fire at the best time. After starting 0-3, the Palidians have run off 7 straight and placed themselves in the driver seat for a playoff birth. Now of course they can run into a brick wall if they lose on the road. It hurts them that both The Citidel and Chattanooga are having rough years cause it make the road victory at Western Carolina the best one.

Samford 7-3 (5-2)

V. Furman

Its an elimination game plain n simple…a Bulldog win gets them in and maybe even hosting a first round game depending on the breakdown. A loss and they will be kicking themselves for a two point home loss versus Chattanooga

Western Carolina 7-4 (5-3)

@North Carolina

If there was one team that took it on the chin the hardest last week its these guys. A two point, home loss to Mercer puts this team in a really bad spot. Even with a win at FBS foe North Carolina, they will probably need some help. I don’t think a victory at 2 win UNC does the trick by itself

Southland

Here we find the conference that should scare the crap outta others. Of the four teams that can make a claim for the playoff, all of them have 8 wins or more, two have pretty much punched tickets already and the other two with wins do the same and even if they don’t have a profile that anyone with 7 wins should worry about

Central Arkansas 9-1 (8-0)

V. Abilene Christian

This is a team looking for seeding and not worrying about if they gonna make it. Probably a Top 4 seed but among them the biggest question mark but that’s for another day

Sam Houston St 9-1 (7-1)

V. Houston Baptist

Again, another team more worried about seeding then if they will get in or not. And again, probably a Top 4 seed but a few teams would beg to differ on that

Nicholls State 8-2 (7-1)

@ Southeast Louisiana

Now here is a team that should really scare the bubbles teams. Only two losses are to Texas A&M by 10 and a blowout loss to SHSU. A loss puts them into the pile with the rest of the “have you done enough” and probably lets someone else sneak in. A win really shuts the door on a lot of teams and makes a couple more sweat it out.

McNeese St 8-2 (6-2)

@ Lamar

Here we have the second of the teams in this conference that if they win, and they probably will, would steal a bid from say the Big Sky or SoCon. And yes, while they are similar to Nicholls, at the end of the day the same story holds true a win should give them a birth in the playoffs. But oh the controversy if a 9 win team would get the boot over say a 7-4 UNI or EWU

The others

Ok admittedly everyone in this section is a super long shot but even then its good to know everyone who has at least a pulse…right? Well probably not, though the first team is bound by some stupid inter conference mess

North Carolina A&T 10-0 (7-0)

V. North Carolina Central

Unlike last year where this game was a de-facto MEAC championship game, this years version doesn’t have that same hype. It’ll still be a good game and if the Aggies win they will be off to the Celebration Bowl and have an outright MEAC title,. Now I could go on and on about how stupid and selfish it it for the MEAC, SWAC, and Ivy League not to have teams in the playoffs (for various reasons) but I won’t. This is just one of those what ifs because technically that aren’t officially invited but wouldn’t it be fun (and also controversial) for the Aggies to go to the playoffs instead. Probably have a Top 8 seed plus another team gets left at the door

Duquesne 7-3 (4-1)

@ Bryant

Ok, I’ll admit full well to say this team has a pulse is a bit generous, but they still do mathematically have a chance so might as well add them in. That loss last week to CCSU might be one of the toughest football games to watch I’ve ever seen. After getting a gift of a pass interference call to put the ball on the 2, why not just take a knee and kick the field goal? Instead u get a run to the one, give ur kicker and impossible angle, and miss the kick (for those who don’t realize it that kick was harder than one from 50). Now the Dukes need an impressive win at Bryant (not that easy), and just complete chaos (probably every 7 win team to lose) to have hope. Not saying its impossible, just improbable

Grambling State 9-1 (6-0)

V Southern

Alright, even this one throws me for a loop. Just like NC A&T a win puts them in the Celebration Bowl and ends conversation quick. A loss and you have a really, really weird case. The Tigers are good but the SWAC is anything but as most people put it only above the Pioneer conference as the worst in FCS, but at the same time Grambling is ranked #13 in the country and even with a loss probably won’t drop below #20. It would be interesting to see what happens but man it would be weird for potentially 2 HBUs in the playoffs

So, if you read this far and hopefully you have, that’s 29 (ok 26) teams with a realistic shot at the playoffs and only 19 spots left (don’t forget about the Patriot League). Needless to say there will be some upset fan bases but it will also make for some interesting fun come Saturday and Sunday. I know I’ll be watching.