So with the FCS
playoffs around the corner a number of teams still have hopes of making the
field of 24 for their chance at standing atop the mountain in Frisco, TX. This
past week cleared up some of the speculation with the first four teams punching
tickets to the playoff by getting the auto-bids from their respective
conferences. San Diego (Pioneer), Wofford (SoCon), Jacksonville St (Ohio
Valley), and Central Conn St (Northeast) can all rest a but easier knowing this
week is more about pride then wondering if they have done enough.
So what we shall do is go
conference by conference and look at see who still has a shot, who is all but a
lock, and who’s bubble will burst after this past week. The number of worthy
teams hasn’t been this high in a long time, some good teams will be left out no
matter what. About 30 teams can say they have a case and I will go thru every
single one and tell you who will and who won’t make come selection this Sunday.
Big Sky
We start off with the biggest
conference on the FCS level and the one with the most haziness. The Big Sky
will be kicking themselves for the showing in non-conference when they faced up
with the Missouri Valley and performed very poorly going only 3-6 with a couple
of bad home losses. Now while teams like Northern Arizona and Eastern Washington
has bounced back is it too little too late?
Southern
Utah 8-2 (6-1)
V. Northern Arizona
How about the Thunderbirds, 6-5
last to currently 8-2 and a chance to win the Big Sky outright and the auto-bid
with a home win versus the Lumberjacks. Now naturally things go into absolute
chaos if they lose, but being one of the few Big Sky teams with a solid
non-conference win (UNI at home), a loss doesn’t completely knock them out if
Weber St also wins on Saturday. The loss on the road at Sac St really stings
but that won’t matter much if they take care of business on Saturday
Weber
St 8-2 (6-1)
V. Idaho St
The second of the three teams
at 6-1 in the Big Sky that Week 7 loss to So Utah means they need a win, one
they should get, and a loss by Southern Utah to get the auto bid. Though as
long as the Wildcats don’t loss they will be comfortably in the playoffs, the
auto bid would give them a Top 8 seed and week off before starting their
playoff run
Northern
Arizona 7-3 (6-1)
@Southern Utah
This is a really interesting case…a win doesn’t 100% guarantee them an invitation but it would make it really hard to knock them out. The question the committee has to ask themselves, how much stock do you put into the 17-15 loss to Montana when Nate Cookus got ejected on an extremely questionable targeting penalty. That being said the blowout loss at home to Western Illinois doesn’t look good on the resume
This is a really interesting case…a win doesn’t 100% guarantee them an invitation but it would make it really hard to knock them out. The question the committee has to ask themselves, how much stock do you put into the 17-15 loss to Montana when Nate Cookus got ejected on an extremely questionable targeting penalty. That being said the blowout loss at home to Western Illinois doesn’t look good on the resume
Montana
7-3 (5-2)
@Montana St
One of the best rivalries on
the FCS level will decide the fate of the Grizz. A loss will surely knock them
out the playoffs as the Bobcats are having down year and none of the bubble
teams can afford a loss, let alone a loss to a unranked team. Just like
Northern Arizona, a win doesn’t 100% guarantee them a spot in the playoffs.
They could easily be the best team not to make the field
Eastern
Washington 6-4 (5-2)
V. Portland State
The only reason why we are
talking about Eastern is because of their recent history and how much it would
hurt not to have one of the most recognized FCS teams not in the playoffs. But
lets face it, even with a predicted win over winless Portland St, the odds are really
stacked against any 7 win team making the field this year. It does help the
Eagles cause that their best win is a road victory at Montana
Big South
From the largest conference to
the smallest…the Big South is going thru a lot of transition with Coastal
Carolina leaving last year and Liberty leaving this year. And while Campbell
and North Alabama will join the ranks this year was just odd. But, guess what,
this is the conference that could really make things interesting if both teams
get in
Monmouth
9-1 (4-0)
@Kennesaw St
So another week, another
de-facto conference championship game. If it could be as good as what we saw in
the NEC then there are a few teams that should be worried. Look, Monmouth
doesn’t have a lot of great wins, it just has wins. The 14 point loss to Albany
is looking worse and worse as the season goes on but it won’t matter if they
win Saturday. A loss makes them an interesting case, can you really leave out a
9 win team that feasted on a bunch of down programs and the Big South?
Kennesaw
St 9-1 (4-0)
V. Monmouth
This program reminds my of when
Old Dominion first came on to the stage about a decade ago. Now I hope they
don’t get fooled like ODU did and move up in class only to get beat down every
week but that’s a different topic. Back to the topic at hand, just like
Monmouth, Kennesaw St is in an interesting spot. After a opening, four point,
road loss to Samford (after a long weather delay) the Owls have run off 9
straight. Outside an impressive road win at Montana St, they have no solid wins
and a non D-1 win. But the same question holds true, can you really leave a 9
win team out of the playoffs?
CAA
Ok, now we get to where things
start to get tricky and why some teams are gonna be real upset come Selection
Sunday. The CAA has probably the best story outside of Austin Peay (more on
them later) in Elon. Along with the Phoenix sit three other teams that could
either get in with wins or be wondering what could have been.
James
Madison 10-0 (7-0)
@ Elon
Ok, these guys are a lock and
with a win would be the #1 overall seed and the favorite to repeat. No need to
go on
Stony
Brook 8-2 (6-1)
@ Maine
Long Island’s Team! (yea kinda
borrowed that from Northwestern). The Seawolves have looked really good since
losing the Delware and with a win should get a top 8 seed, though a few teams
are in that 6-8 range. But here’s the thing, if they lose they could miss the
playoffs all together. Yes a lot of things with have to fall in place but late
losses to unranked teams can doom you, especially to a below .500 team
Elon
8-2 (6-1)
V. James Madison
Like I said at the start, Elon
is one of the best stories this season. Since joining the CAA the Phoenix
haven’t had the success that they had while in the SoCon. In fact this will be
their best finish since changing conferences in 2007. With that being said,
just like Stony Brook, they can go from potentially being a Top 8 seed to
missing out all together. They will most likely finish 8-3 and overall have a
negative scoring difference (currently at -13) and currently have a crazy 8-0
record in one position games. This could easily be a situation where the
Phoenix gets left out because someone else’s profile is better. That being
said, hard to knock someone with four Top 25 wins
New
Hampshire 7-3 (5-2)
@Albany
Now we are back to the “A win
doesn’t assure you a playoff birth” line with the Wildcats. Last weeks win at
home against Elon put them back into the conversation but these guys need some
help. They probably need a win and a couple others to lose (NAU, UNI, S.
Dakota, W. Illinois come to mind) to not have to really worry but double digits
losses to James Madison, Stony Brook, and Holy Cross (woodshed beatdown, gulp)
don’t help the cause. A loss and you can forget about it
Delaware
7-3 (5-2)
@Villanova
If you haven’t noticed yet,
there are a lot of tightly packed teams that the selection committee has to
sift thru and Delaware is right there with about 10 to 18 teams. And just like
a majority of them, its basically the same where they have “solid but not
great” win(s) and a bad loss or two. Delaware has a solid win at Stony Brook
but a loss at Towson hurts. Unfortunately for the Blue Hens, having both ‘Nova
and Richmond have down years makes their case a little less promising
Missouri Valley
Now we come to the conference
that pound for pound is the best. But with being the best means you beat each
other up and this year is no different and might even be the worst time for it.
All six ranked teams still have a shot at making the postseason, but depending
on who wins Saturday as few as two might get the invite. Lets not forget
Youngstown St, who would even make the playoffs after being runner-up last year
North
Dakota St. 9-1 (6-1)
@ Illinois St
Just like James Madison, very
much in the playoffs and still have a shot at the #1 seed. And just like James
Madison can make a team very unhappy if the play spoiler and knock off the
Redbirds in Normal
Northern
Iowa 6-4 (5-2)
V. Indiana St
Look, they will finish with 7
wins (Indiana St is really bad) and 6 in conference but with that being said,
they need lots of help…that is how good the field is. Last year or two years
ago we wouldn’t have this conversation but they really need to look good and
hope others look bad to sneak in the playoffs. Those early season, bone
crushing losses to SUU and W. Illinois are gonna bite them big
South
Dakota St. 8-2 (5-2)
@ South Dakota
Yet another team who pretty
much has their ticket punched, Jackrabbits are mostly going for seeding at this
point. A loss means they would have to play next week but a win gives them a
week off and blows up the Coyotes chances of getting in. Oh MVFC, how much fun
you are
Western
Illinois 7-3 (4-3)
V. Southern Illinois
Ok, my alma mata is in a weird
spot…lose and they are basically out (really don’t see any 7 wins teams making
it), win and most likely be the 9th seed and get home game but have to travel
on the road the rest of the way. Now of course this year that isn’t a bad thing
since they are 6-1 on the road. But seriously, can people actually show up to a
game?
South
Dakota 7-3 (4-3)
V. SDSU
Well, we have reached the team
who is in limbo the most. Here is the problem, early wins at WIU (nearly blew
it) and then Youngstown St (blew it but salvaged it at the end) have been
overshadowed by them losing 3 of 4 all to the upper rung of the league. Now
they have the Jackrabbits coming to town and if they don’t win all that early
season success goes bye-bye. And these guys are a solid team but its hard to
start 6-0 and finish 1-4 and make the playoffs…ask Western last year
Illinois
State 6-4 (4-3)
V. NDSU
Ok to be honest, I don’t think
they get in even with a win and help but stranger things can happen. Back to
Back losses have really put them on life support, they have a pulse but the
Bison can really end things. Again another team who started red hot (4-0) only
to suffer at the meat of the schedule
Ohio Valley
This year in the OVC has been
no different then in recent memory…basically its Jacksonville St and whoever
else. This year that “whoever else” has been an amazing surprise in Austin
Peay. Probably not gonna get in the playoffs but still, the 7 wins is the more
than the past five years combined (7 to 3). I hope this isn’t a Indiana State
deal of a couple years ago where they had success, never made the playoffs, and
then became really bad again after the coach left for “greener pastures”
Austin
Peay 7-4 (6-1)
V. Eastern Illinois
Ok, we talked about how the OVC
had already crowned its champion (Jacksonville St) but they still do have an
outside shot at a second member in the playoffs. The Governors have four losses
but three are against FBS teams and Jacksonville St…none of those are bad
losses. A win versus the Panthers gives the committee and interesting profile
to consider…they don’t have any really special wins but a potential 8-1 versus
FCS schools has to mean something right?
Southern Conference
Here we have a conference that
is like the OVC where the auto bid has already been decided (Wofford) but also
has teams that can say they have a shot but really can’t afford to falter this
weekend. It doesn’t help that one will instantly be eliminated as two of the
three teams with a shot go head-to-head
Furman
7-3 (6-1)
@Samford
Furman is on fire at the best
time. After starting 0-3, the Palidians have run off 7 straight and placed
themselves in the driver seat for a playoff birth. Now of course they can run
into a brick wall if they lose on the road. It hurts them that both The Citidel
and Chattanooga are having rough years cause it make the road victory at
Western Carolina the best one.
Samford
7-3 (5-2)
V. Furman
Its an elimination game plain n
simple…a Bulldog win gets them in and maybe even hosting a first round game
depending on the breakdown. A loss and they will be kicking themselves for a
two point home loss versus Chattanooga
Western
Carolina 7-4 (5-3)
@North Carolina
If there was one team that took
it on the chin the hardest last week its these guys. A two point, home loss to
Mercer puts this team in a really bad spot. Even with a win at FBS foe North
Carolina, they will probably need some help. I don’t think a victory at 2 win
UNC does the trick by itself
Southland
Here we find the conference
that should scare the crap outta others. Of the four teams that can make a
claim for the playoff, all of them have 8 wins or more, two have pretty much
punched tickets already and the other two with wins do the same and even if
they don’t have a profile that anyone with 7 wins should worry about
Central
Arkansas 9-1 (8-0)
V. Abilene Christian
This is a team looking for
seeding and not worrying about if they gonna make it. Probably a Top 4 seed but
among them the biggest question mark but that’s for another day
Sam
Houston St 9-1 (7-1)
V. Houston Baptist
Again, another team more
worried about seeding then if they will get in or not. And again, probably a
Top 4 seed but a few teams would beg to differ on that
Nicholls
State 8-2 (7-1)
@ Southeast Louisiana
Now here is a team that should
really scare the bubbles teams. Only two losses are to Texas A&M by 10 and
a blowout loss to SHSU. A loss puts them into the pile with the rest of the
“have you done enough” and probably lets someone else sneak in. A win really
shuts the door on a lot of teams and makes a couple more sweat it out.
McNeese
St 8-2 (6-2)
@ Lamar
Here we have the second of the
teams in this conference that if they win, and they probably will, would steal
a bid from say the Big Sky or SoCon. And yes, while they are similar to
Nicholls, at the end of the day the same story holds true a win should give
them a birth in the playoffs. But oh the controversy if a 9 win team would get
the boot over say a 7-4 UNI or EWU
The others
Ok admittedly everyone in this
section is a super long shot but even then its good to know everyone who has at
least a pulse…right? Well probably not, though the first team is bound by some
stupid inter conference mess
North
Carolina A&T 10-0 (7-0)
V. North Carolina Central
Unlike last year where this
game was a de-facto MEAC championship game, this years version doesn’t have
that same hype. It’ll still be a good game and if the Aggies win they will be
off to the Celebration Bowl and have an outright MEAC title,. Now I could go on
and on about how stupid and selfish it it for the MEAC, SWAC, and Ivy League
not to have teams in the playoffs (for various reasons) but I won’t. This is
just one of those what ifs because technically that aren’t officially invited
but wouldn’t it be fun (and also controversial) for the Aggies to go to the playoffs
instead. Probably have a Top 8 seed plus another team gets left at the door
Duquesne
7-3 (4-1)
@ Bryant
Ok, I’ll admit full well to say
this team has a pulse is a bit generous, but they still do mathematically have
a chance so might as well add them in. That loss last week to CCSU might be one
of the toughest football games to watch I’ve ever seen. After getting a gift of
a pass interference call to put the ball on the 2, why not just take a knee and
kick the field goal? Instead u get a run to the one, give ur kicker and
impossible angle, and miss the kick (for those who don’t realize it that kick
was harder than one from 50). Now the Dukes need an impressive win at Bryant
(not that easy), and just complete chaos (probably every 7 win team to lose) to
have hope. Not saying its impossible, just improbable
Grambling State 9-1 (6-0)
V Southern
Alright, even this
one throws me for a loop. Just like NC A&T a win puts them in the
Celebration Bowl and ends conversation quick. A loss and you have a really,
really weird case. The Tigers are good but the SWAC is anything but as most
people put it only above the Pioneer conference as the worst in FCS, but at the
same time Grambling is ranked #13 in the country and even with a loss probably
won’t drop below #20. It would be interesting to see what happens but man it
would be weird for potentially 2 HBUs in the playoffs
So, if you read this far and
hopefully you have, that’s 29 (ok 26) teams with a realistic shot at the
playoffs and only 19 spots left (don’t forget about the Patriot League).
Needless to say there will be some upset fan bases but it will also make for
some interesting fun come Saturday and Sunday. I know I’ll be watching.
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