Needless to say it has been a couple weeks since I have been able to write on here and it sucks because a lot has been on my mind but when your previous employer has you working around 50 hrs a week before firing you because of performance issues (figure that one out) you have been more than a little bit tired.
But alas, I have some free time and a good write up on a number of teams in some trouble. We are heading into Week 5 of the season and a lot of teams that normally be in the playoff hunt are in some serious trouble and in need of a run. Gonna talk about some of those teams and look at the percentages of potentially making a run and backdooring themselves into the playoffs.
All of these teams currently have losing records or are .500 with a non-FBS or FCS victory to their credit. Also, even though their only route into the playoffs is winning the conference, I will include conference champions from last year. And we shall do this in alphabetical order by conference
Big Sky
Southern Utah 0-4 (0-1)
This is done more as a courtesy than saying the T-Birds have a shot. The opening week loss to a "better than advertised" N. Alabama team then last week's loss to N.Arizona made a potential repeat playoff birth all but a dream at this point. The T-Birds would have to win out and get plenty of help and to do it they have to go thru E. Washington, Montana, Sac St, and Weber St in order to get to 7-4. Never say never but this one is very unlikely with a defense that ranks near the bottom in most categories. Chances to make the playoffs: 3 percent
Idaho 1-2 (0-1)
This was a lot of peoples sneaky backdoor pick to make it to the playoffs and so far it is looking like things might not work out as people hoped. The schedule has been mixed as they have played a conference game (UC Davis), a D-II team, and an FBS opponent (Fresno St) and only have a D-II win to show for it. The problem with any hopes of an Idaho comeback is that with a game @Florida to end the year, the Vandals will have to also win out not only to potentially win the conference but also to have the seven FCS or highers wins required. A tall task for a team that defensively has not looked very promising. The good news is that some momentum can be obtained with a couple of potential "get right" games versus Portland St and Idaho St. But you know little brother will always be ready Chances to make the playoffs: 5 percent
CAA
New Hampshire 0-3 (0-1)
The Wildcats streak of 14 straight playoff births is in serious danger. Yes, I can go into why we shouldn't be even talking about the streak but that's neither here nor there. As soon as CAA preseason offensive player of the year Trevor Knight went down with his shoulder injury in the week one loss to Maine the offensive production has gone with him. He may indeed come back before the year is up but the sooner the better in order for the streak to go to 15. A win this week @Elon could start the ball rolling but without a sustainable offensive attack (only two offensive touchdowns this year) the Wildcats are in trouble. Chances to make the playoffs: 1 percent (without Knight), 15 percent (with Knight)
Missouri Valley
But alas, I have some free time and a good write up on a number of teams in some trouble. We are heading into Week 5 of the season and a lot of teams that normally be in the playoff hunt are in some serious trouble and in need of a run. Gonna talk about some of those teams and look at the percentages of potentially making a run and backdooring themselves into the playoffs.
All of these teams currently have losing records or are .500 with a non-FBS or FCS victory to their credit. Also, even though their only route into the playoffs is winning the conference, I will include conference champions from last year. And we shall do this in alphabetical order by conference
Big Sky
Southern Utah 0-4 (0-1)
This is done more as a courtesy than saying the T-Birds have a shot. The opening week loss to a "better than advertised" N. Alabama team then last week's loss to N.Arizona made a potential repeat playoff birth all but a dream at this point. The T-Birds would have to win out and get plenty of help and to do it they have to go thru E. Washington, Montana, Sac St, and Weber St in order to get to 7-4. Never say never but this one is very unlikely with a defense that ranks near the bottom in most categories. Chances to make the playoffs: 3 percent
Idaho 1-2 (0-1)
This was a lot of peoples sneaky backdoor pick to make it to the playoffs and so far it is looking like things might not work out as people hoped. The schedule has been mixed as they have played a conference game (UC Davis), a D-II team, and an FBS opponent (Fresno St) and only have a D-II win to show for it. The problem with any hopes of an Idaho comeback is that with a game @Florida to end the year, the Vandals will have to also win out not only to potentially win the conference but also to have the seven FCS or highers wins required. A tall task for a team that defensively has not looked very promising. The good news is that some momentum can be obtained with a couple of potential "get right" games versus Portland St and Idaho St. But you know little brother will always be ready Chances to make the playoffs: 5 percent
CAA
New Hampshire 0-3 (0-1)
The Wildcats streak of 14 straight playoff births is in serious danger. Yes, I can go into why we shouldn't be even talking about the streak but that's neither here nor there. As soon as CAA preseason offensive player of the year Trevor Knight went down with his shoulder injury in the week one loss to Maine the offensive production has gone with him. He may indeed come back before the year is up but the sooner the better in order for the streak to go to 15. A win this week @Elon could start the ball rolling but without a sustainable offensive attack (only two offensive touchdowns this year) the Wildcats are in trouble. Chances to make the playoffs: 1 percent (without Knight), 15 percent (with Knight)
Missouri Valley
Northern Iowa 1-2 (0-0)
The Panthers are in a cluster of four in the Valley all sitting at 1-2 for different reasons but all having legit shots at the playoffs. UNI had themselves a "get right" game this past weekend with the shutout at home to Hampton and should be 2-2 after this weeks conference opener @ Indiana St. (though the environment is one of the worst in the country by a long shot). What lies afterward is the cause for concern, a six-game stretch where they play each of the other teams that have a shot at the playoffs in the conference. Although both NDSU and SDSU come to the UNI Dome, that is a stretch that most would take a 3-3 record but, UNI would most likely have to go 4-2 or 5-1 to give themselves a shot. This is gonna most likely be one of those teams you look at and go damn they are really good...how did they miss the playoffs? The Missouri Valley is that damn good. Chances to make the playoffs: 25 percent
Youngstown St 1-2 (0-0)
No teams early season loss stings more than the one the Penguins had opening week versus Butler. The late game implosion might just cause them a playoff birth. This weeks game versus W. Illinois is an elimination game and so important for both teams. Unlike the Necks, but just like the Panthers, the Penguins have to play all of the other Big 7 in the conference and add a high scoring S. Illinois to the mix and it is not an easy go for YSU. And let's be honest, not much is known about Youngstown...two PFL victories and a blowout loss to West Virginia don't tell the full story about what this team can do. Is this the 2016 FCS runners-up or the "fall flat" 2017 version? Chances to make the playoffs: 15 percent
South Dakota 1-2 (0-0)
The Coyotes could be off the list and sitting with house money if the week 1 matchup @Kansas St went a bit differently. But the stinker @Weber St puts S. Dakota in a bit of a bind. While SIU and Missouri St could be momentum builders, any type a trip up leave zero room for error with the meat grinder schedules that awaits at the end of the season. One note...I know that the stats don't show it but look out for the score this week with S. Dakota/SIU could be one of the highest scoring games of the season. Chances to make the playoffs: 15 percent
Western Illinois 1-2 (0-0)
Well two weeks ago, WIU saved their season with a 5 min stretch in the 4th quarter in the comeback win versus Montana. A lot of relief it did as the 'Necks got a week off to prepare for a three-week stretch in which each game is basically an elimination game for Western starting with the homecoming tilt versus YSU. Over the last few years, WIU loves to have really hard schedules that leaves little margin for error and that opening week loss to Montana St is really gonna hurt unless the Bobcats continue their resurgence to boost WIU resume. That being said baring anything less than a 2-1 stretch, my alma mater is gonna be the best 6-5 team in the country...again. Chances to make the playoffs: 30 percent
Patriot League
Lehigh 1-3 (0-0)
So, this spot is nothing new for the Mountian Hawks as they started last year in a worse hole before winning 5 of 6 and the Patriot League title...something like that is gonna have to happen again but they have to deal with a Colgate team out on a mission. The biggest difference between this year and last year...the offense...once a top offense in the FCS, it hasn't really gotten on track like it did last year. But the same could be said last year as in conference last year they did average over 30 points during conference play. Chances to make the playoffs: 30 percent
Pioneer League
San Diego 1-2 (0-0)
This team is an interesting one...on the one hand, the current 1-2 record was pretty much an expected one. Plus the Terreros haven't lost in the conference in 3 years so they have those good vibes going for them. But on the opposite side...they just haven't looked like the same dominant team. QB Anthony Lawrence has already thrown more picks in three games than he did all of last year (3 in 2017) and just overall things have been a bit down across the board. Unlike the rest of the teams on the list, there isn't really a major challenger to knock them off the top so the king may still stand. Chances to make the playoffs: 85 percent
Southern
Furman 0-3 (0-1)
Just like with S. Utah this is more of a eulogy than a legit hope for the playoffs. The offense has been dreadful in the first three games this year and while that's ok after playing Clemson, it's not a good sign after playing Elon and ETSU. The loss to ETSU could have been the killing blow as not only did they blow a 27-6 lead but lost after giving up a safety after the Bucs tied the game and the ensuing kickoff was downed at the 3 (oh vey). Winning out is this team's only option as the game against Colgate was canceled due to the hurricane and it doesn't seem like there is a way to add a game to boost the resume. And left on the schedule is a resurgent Chatanooga, an equally desperate Samford, and Wofford. Chances to make the playoffs:1 percent
Samford 1-3 (0-2)
Next to SHSU, Samford is the most disappointing team in the nation so far. This was a team that brought everyone back for more and while they had Florida State on the ropes, the follow-up games versus Mercer and Chatanooga have shown a team that is still affected by the near monumental upset of FSU. Now the good news is that the offense is still as good as it has been, the defense, however, has regressed to the point where the offense can't hold everything up. The schedule hasn't helped matters as the one win for the Bulldogs was versus a D-II team plus the two conference losses makes the road significantly harder. And on the horizon...Kennesaw St. A win can be a momentum boost, a loss ends any hope. Chances to make the playoffs: 2 percent
Southland
Sam Houston St 1-2 (0-1)
So right now you could make the argument that this team should be 0-3...they barely survived the opening week game versus Praire View St, then after the N Dakota upset and the struggles versus Nicolls the Bearkats are in limbo. A loss this week to Central Arkansas would be crippling but not quite a death blow. One thing that has to change is the running game which is only averaging just over 100 yards a game. If they beat UCA, the schedule afterward opens up with lower tier opponents from the conference so they team can easily make a run but not one that oozes of confidence. Chances to make the playoffs: 65 percent
Patriot League
Lehigh 1-3 (0-0)
So, this spot is nothing new for the Mountian Hawks as they started last year in a worse hole before winning 5 of 6 and the Patriot League title...something like that is gonna have to happen again but they have to deal with a Colgate team out on a mission. The biggest difference between this year and last year...the offense...once a top offense in the FCS, it hasn't really gotten on track like it did last year. But the same could be said last year as in conference last year they did average over 30 points during conference play. Chances to make the playoffs: 30 percent
Pioneer League
San Diego 1-2 (0-0)
This team is an interesting one...on the one hand, the current 1-2 record was pretty much an expected one. Plus the Terreros haven't lost in the conference in 3 years so they have those good vibes going for them. But on the opposite side...they just haven't looked like the same dominant team. QB Anthony Lawrence has already thrown more picks in three games than he did all of last year (3 in 2017) and just overall things have been a bit down across the board. Unlike the rest of the teams on the list, there isn't really a major challenger to knock them off the top so the king may still stand. Chances to make the playoffs: 85 percent
Southern
Furman 0-3 (0-1)
Just like with S. Utah this is more of a eulogy than a legit hope for the playoffs. The offense has been dreadful in the first three games this year and while that's ok after playing Clemson, it's not a good sign after playing Elon and ETSU. The loss to ETSU could have been the killing blow as not only did they blow a 27-6 lead but lost after giving up a safety after the Bucs tied the game and the ensuing kickoff was downed at the 3 (oh vey). Winning out is this team's only option as the game against Colgate was canceled due to the hurricane and it doesn't seem like there is a way to add a game to boost the resume. And left on the schedule is a resurgent Chatanooga, an equally desperate Samford, and Wofford. Chances to make the playoffs:1 percent
Samford 1-3 (0-2)
Next to SHSU, Samford is the most disappointing team in the nation so far. This was a team that brought everyone back for more and while they had Florida State on the ropes, the follow-up games versus Mercer and Chatanooga have shown a team that is still affected by the near monumental upset of FSU. Now the good news is that the offense is still as good as it has been, the defense, however, has regressed to the point where the offense can't hold everything up. The schedule hasn't helped matters as the one win for the Bulldogs was versus a D-II team plus the two conference losses makes the road significantly harder. And on the horizon...Kennesaw St. A win can be a momentum boost, a loss ends any hope. Chances to make the playoffs: 2 percent
Southland
Sam Houston St 1-2 (0-1)
So right now you could make the argument that this team should be 0-3...they barely survived the opening week game versus Praire View St, then after the N Dakota upset and the struggles versus Nicolls the Bearkats are in limbo. A loss this week to Central Arkansas would be crippling but not quite a death blow. One thing that has to change is the running game which is only averaging just over 100 yards a game. If they beat UCA, the schedule afterward opens up with lower tier opponents from the conference so they team can easily make a run but not one that oozes of confidence. Chances to make the playoffs: 65 percent
Comments
Post a Comment