Not gonna lie I probably should have done this for the entire playoffs but I had been on the fence about doing something like this. We will see how this goes and if I actually get this out before the first game which is in about 3 hours. Maybe if I get the first one out I'll post then update as I go along.
But anyways onto the predictions. NO scores or anything like that just what I'm looking out for and who is gonna come out on top. There are some very interesting matchups for the Quarterfinals as only one is really considered a mismatch, and that is only because its NDSU in the FargoDome. Outside of that these are very evenly matched teams who in one case mirror one other so closely. As talked about in the last post, home teams so far in the playoffs are 15-1 and most of the games haven't been close. I will say this, I have at least one road team winning this weekend
Onto the picks:
No. 7 seed Maine (9-3) at No. 2 seed Weber State (10-2)
Kickoff - 8 p.m. ET Coverage - ESPN2 Series - First meeting
When you look at both of these teams its like looking in a mirror...they so closely relate to each other. The both boast top-flight defenses that stop the run and can turn you over, Weber St being in the top ten in turnover margin Both can also get after the quarterback as Maine is second in the country in sacks (44) while Weber St is seventh (39)
Not to be overshadowed, both schools have offenses that aren't overly flashy but always seem to get the job done and if you sleep on them...look out cause they can put up some points. Both teams last week put up season highs in point in the second round victories and boast run-first offenses that take advantage of matchups in the passing game.
When you have two teams that are so closely matched, the key to who might win this game has to be the turnover battle. And even then you have two teams that have similar turnover margins. So what else do you look for? Well, sometimes you just have to look simple at the home team. Maine has to travel well over 2500 miles to play this game and, I dunno about you, but that is not an easy trip to make, driving or flying
Prediction: As much as I love how good Maine looked versus Jacksonville St, they are a team that can be beaten by someone like Weber St who can lay the lumber on you and doesn't make a ton of mistakes. Plus the travel, its an 8 hr flight just to get there. Weary legs make for a rough go for the Black Bears. Gotta go Weber State in a good game that comes down to a few plays late.
No. 8 seed Colgate (10-1) at No. 1 seed North Dakota State (12-0)
Kickoff - Noon ET Coverage - ESPN Series - First meeting
One week after knocking out last year FCS runner-up in James Madison, Colgate now gets to face the defending champion in North Dakota St, yea no pressure there. You have to figure that Colgate will come into the game loose since nobody outside of the team and fan base thinks they can come within two touchdowns of the Bison. As I have said in previous posts, this is the wildcard team of the entire playoffs. They simply dominated the Patriot League on a record scale but the steps up in class has proven to be a little more interesting as they have come back to the mean a little. But when you look at the numbers...five shutouts, a total of 28 points given up in conference play, and sport the third-best turnover margin in the country.
Normally when you see those types of numbers a team would be favorites, but they have to face the death star that is NDSU. Its really weird when you see this team play...they aren't super flashy, aren't the fastest, you look at some of the techniques and it is a bit head-scratching, but man alive are they one of if not the most physical team out there. It just comes in waves and the worst part is that they want to run you into the ground but have shown that when it is necessary, Easton Stick, who was MVFC offensive player of the year and has a great football name, can throw it to win it. And while the defense isn't as well known as in previous years, its still really good and can be ultra aggressive when handed large leads.
The key to this game will be who establishes the line of scrimmage and wins the time of possession battle. Another area Colgate shines in is T.O.P where it was third in the country at 33:48 on average per game but NDSU is no slouch in that department either. Added by an over 50% conversion rate on third down, the Bison average nearly 32 minutes a game of possession.
Prediction: Look Colgate is good, Colgate against the other seven teams would have a better chance if not favored but they got the unfortunate draw of dealing with the best team in the country. For them to win the Raiders have to play a perfect game while the Bison make a lot of mistakes. I just don't see that happening...go with the Bison by 13
No. 5 seed South Dakota State (9-2) at No. 4 seed Kennesaw State (11-1)
Kickoff - 2 p.m. ET Coverage - ESPN3 Series - First meeting
So forgive me for thinking this was in S. Dakota which would have been advantage Jackrabbits but it being in Georgia it definitely swings the advantage towards Kennesaw. With that being said, weather should be playing a major factor as it will be raining all game long once again. That being said...hopefully Kennesaw doesn't drop back almost 20 times like it did last week (still confused about that one)
Just like Colgate, Kennesaw is stepping up in class today. One of the biggest question marks about Kennesaw is how the would fair when they play the upper level of teams in the FCS...so far you'd have to say the best they have played so far would have been Sam Houston St in last year's playoff. Well, SDSU is a lot better than them and one could argue is the second best team in the country (yes I know those Big Sky teams would say otherwise). Of course, the great equalizer that the Owls have, the triple option which is a pain in the ass to get ready for in just one week. And don't sleep on the defense either. It's not the biggest out there but they have some speed and can get after you in ways that can disrupt the best of offenses to the tune of being the third best defense in yards allowed per game and sixth in points allowed
South Dakota St is one of those teams that almost underrated because they are in the shadow of NDSU. But make no mistake this team is good and when you have the QB that the Jackrabbits have in Taryn Christion you know that points will come. Helps when you put up games of 90, 54, 59, 57, and last weeks 51 in a snowstorm. The defense does its part as well as it can hang with the best of them and held NDSU to its second-lowest scoring total of the season and turns you over. But like I said this is a whole different ballgame dealing with the triple option
Prediction: Look for Kennesaw to try and grind this out and try and control the clock as best as possible and my guess is that they will. But I also think it won't matter because of how talented SDSU is on offense. They won't score 50 but they will score enough...look for a few big plays to be the difference in a close game. Take the Jackrabbits by 8
No. 6 seed UC Davis (10-2) at No. 3 seed Eastern Washington (10-2)
Kickoff - 4 p.m. ET Coverage - ESPN3
Series - Eastern Washington leads 7-0 (last meeting: EWU won at home 59-20 on Nov. 10)
Its the last game of the day and the only one where the teams have seen each other before. And the last time it was an EWU blowout late in the regular season. In fact, UC Davis has never beaten EWU in seven tries. Granted this is the best Aggie team the Eagles have faced but that has to be in the back of the minds of the vistors.
UC Davis last week looked pretty average but then again UNI will do that to a lot of teams. But when this team is humming, it is an explosive offense with a bend but don't break defense that can be broken but the offense tends to take up the slack. If there is one name to know its WR Keelan Doss. He is a bonafide NFL prospect and could probably be a second-day pick. But this is uncharted territory for the Aggies, it will be interesting to see if the comfort of a Big Sky opponent will offset the uncharted territory
Eastern Washington has been an interesting team this year...QB Eric Barriere has stepped in and played pretty well since taking over midseason and the offense has become more balanced since he took over. The Eagles are trying to become the perfect hybrid of speed/power and they come pretty close to accomplishing the goal. A physical offensive/defensive lines with a lot of speed with the skill positions. Though the defense could be short-handed as they had a few people go down in last weekends game versus Nicholls
Prediction: The common opponent will help UC-Davis but after seeing them last week it just feels like they are a bit in over their head and playing almost like they got house money. It has been a history making centennial season for the Aggies but EWU is on a mission and I think they take that next step. Eagles by 10
But anyways onto the predictions. NO scores or anything like that just what I'm looking out for and who is gonna come out on top. There are some very interesting matchups for the Quarterfinals as only one is really considered a mismatch, and that is only because its NDSU in the FargoDome. Outside of that these are very evenly matched teams who in one case mirror one other so closely. As talked about in the last post, home teams so far in the playoffs are 15-1 and most of the games haven't been close. I will say this, I have at least one road team winning this weekend
Onto the picks:
No. 7 seed Maine (9-3) at No. 2 seed Weber State (10-2)
Kickoff - 8 p.m. ET Coverage - ESPN2 Series - First meeting
When you look at both of these teams its like looking in a mirror...they so closely relate to each other. The both boast top-flight defenses that stop the run and can turn you over, Weber St being in the top ten in turnover margin Both can also get after the quarterback as Maine is second in the country in sacks (44) while Weber St is seventh (39)
Not to be overshadowed, both schools have offenses that aren't overly flashy but always seem to get the job done and if you sleep on them...look out cause they can put up some points. Both teams last week put up season highs in point in the second round victories and boast run-first offenses that take advantage of matchups in the passing game.
When you have two teams that are so closely matched, the key to who might win this game has to be the turnover battle. And even then you have two teams that have similar turnover margins. So what else do you look for? Well, sometimes you just have to look simple at the home team. Maine has to travel well over 2500 miles to play this game and, I dunno about you, but that is not an easy trip to make, driving or flying
Prediction: As much as I love how good Maine looked versus Jacksonville St, they are a team that can be beaten by someone like Weber St who can lay the lumber on you and doesn't make a ton of mistakes. Plus the travel, its an 8 hr flight just to get there. Weary legs make for a rough go for the Black Bears. Gotta go Weber State in a good game that comes down to a few plays late.
No. 8 seed Colgate (10-1) at No. 1 seed North Dakota State (12-0)
Kickoff - Noon ET Coverage - ESPN Series - First meeting
One week after knocking out last year FCS runner-up in James Madison, Colgate now gets to face the defending champion in North Dakota St, yea no pressure there. You have to figure that Colgate will come into the game loose since nobody outside of the team and fan base thinks they can come within two touchdowns of the Bison. As I have said in previous posts, this is the wildcard team of the entire playoffs. They simply dominated the Patriot League on a record scale but the steps up in class has proven to be a little more interesting as they have come back to the mean a little. But when you look at the numbers...five shutouts, a total of 28 points given up in conference play, and sport the third-best turnover margin in the country.
Normally when you see those types of numbers a team would be favorites, but they have to face the death star that is NDSU. Its really weird when you see this team play...they aren't super flashy, aren't the fastest, you look at some of the techniques and it is a bit head-scratching, but man alive are they one of if not the most physical team out there. It just comes in waves and the worst part is that they want to run you into the ground but have shown that when it is necessary, Easton Stick, who was MVFC offensive player of the year and has a great football name, can throw it to win it. And while the defense isn't as well known as in previous years, its still really good and can be ultra aggressive when handed large leads.
The key to this game will be who establishes the line of scrimmage and wins the time of possession battle. Another area Colgate shines in is T.O.P where it was third in the country at 33:48 on average per game but NDSU is no slouch in that department either. Added by an over 50% conversion rate on third down, the Bison average nearly 32 minutes a game of possession.
Prediction: Look Colgate is good, Colgate against the other seven teams would have a better chance if not favored but they got the unfortunate draw of dealing with the best team in the country. For them to win the Raiders have to play a perfect game while the Bison make a lot of mistakes. I just don't see that happening...go with the Bison by 13
No. 5 seed South Dakota State (9-2) at No. 4 seed Kennesaw State (11-1)
Kickoff - 2 p.m. ET Coverage - ESPN3 Series - First meeting
So forgive me for thinking this was in S. Dakota which would have been advantage Jackrabbits but it being in Georgia it definitely swings the advantage towards Kennesaw. With that being said, weather should be playing a major factor as it will be raining all game long once again. That being said...hopefully Kennesaw doesn't drop back almost 20 times like it did last week (still confused about that one)
Just like Colgate, Kennesaw is stepping up in class today. One of the biggest question marks about Kennesaw is how the would fair when they play the upper level of teams in the FCS...so far you'd have to say the best they have played so far would have been Sam Houston St in last year's playoff. Well, SDSU is a lot better than them and one could argue is the second best team in the country (yes I know those Big Sky teams would say otherwise). Of course, the great equalizer that the Owls have, the triple option which is a pain in the ass to get ready for in just one week. And don't sleep on the defense either. It's not the biggest out there but they have some speed and can get after you in ways that can disrupt the best of offenses to the tune of being the third best defense in yards allowed per game and sixth in points allowed
South Dakota St is one of those teams that almost underrated because they are in the shadow of NDSU. But make no mistake this team is good and when you have the QB that the Jackrabbits have in Taryn Christion you know that points will come. Helps when you put up games of 90, 54, 59, 57, and last weeks 51 in a snowstorm. The defense does its part as well as it can hang with the best of them and held NDSU to its second-lowest scoring total of the season and turns you over. But like I said this is a whole different ballgame dealing with the triple option
Prediction: Look for Kennesaw to try and grind this out and try and control the clock as best as possible and my guess is that they will. But I also think it won't matter because of how talented SDSU is on offense. They won't score 50 but they will score enough...look for a few big plays to be the difference in a close game. Take the Jackrabbits by 8
No. 6 seed UC Davis (10-2) at No. 3 seed Eastern Washington (10-2)
Kickoff - 4 p.m. ET Coverage - ESPN3
Series - Eastern Washington leads 7-0 (last meeting: EWU won at home 59-20 on Nov. 10)
Its the last game of the day and the only one where the teams have seen each other before. And the last time it was an EWU blowout late in the regular season. In fact, UC Davis has never beaten EWU in seven tries. Granted this is the best Aggie team the Eagles have faced but that has to be in the back of the minds of the vistors.
UC Davis last week looked pretty average but then again UNI will do that to a lot of teams. But when this team is humming, it is an explosive offense with a bend but don't break defense that can be broken but the offense tends to take up the slack. If there is one name to know its WR Keelan Doss. He is a bonafide NFL prospect and could probably be a second-day pick. But this is uncharted territory for the Aggies, it will be interesting to see if the comfort of a Big Sky opponent will offset the uncharted territory
Eastern Washington has been an interesting team this year...QB Eric Barriere has stepped in and played pretty well since taking over midseason and the offense has become more balanced since he took over. The Eagles are trying to become the perfect hybrid of speed/power and they come pretty close to accomplishing the goal. A physical offensive/defensive lines with a lot of speed with the skill positions. Though the defense could be short-handed as they had a few people go down in last weekends game versus Nicholls
Prediction: The common opponent will help UC-Davis but after seeing them last week it just feels like they are a bit in over their head and playing almost like they got house money. It has been a history making centennial season for the Aggies but EWU is on a mission and I think they take that next step. Eagles by 10
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