Yea, not gonna lie, since I've been closely following the FCS this could be the craziest season in terms of the number of teams who not only can win a conference title but can also make the playoffs. Just off the top of my head, maybe about 40-50 or so teams in the jumble to get those coveted 24 playoff spots. Call it parody or luck, I just like to think that things are starting to even out as you see talent go across the board. Yes, the amount of national championship contenders is about the same but even that has new blood and it makes for a very fun last month and a half in the season.
Now, this one won't go team by team and talk about the prospects of each cause the next couple of weeks can clear things up nicely. Plus, I don't want to write 40+ outlooks...the one last year took forever, although it did get the most reads (go figure)
So we shall do it like this, go thru each conference (yes even the MEAC, SWAC, and Ivy League) and say who should win the conference, who shouldn't have to worry about the bubble and get into the playoffs, and who will be floating on the bubble wondering. And for the other three conferences, just who will win the conference (The MEAC and IVY League need to have championship games).
Big Sky
Should Win: UC Davis
Shouldn't have to worry: E. Washington, Weber St
Work left to do: Idaho St, Montana St
Out: N. Arizona, Idaho, Portland St, Montana
The top 3 teams in the Big Sky have little to worry about, neither has a bad loss on the record and while E. Washinton does have a non D-I victory, the Eagles should be fine even without a loss. If Idaho St maintains form and goes into the Weber St game with its 3 losses it should be ok with a loss but a perfect record makes that point mute with a top 10 triumph. Montana St is holding on by a thread, it not only has to go undefeated but would probably need Western Illinois to do the same to boost both teams resumes as the group of 7-4 teams on the cusp should be grand.
Of the team in the "Out" section, Montana still has a chance but is trending down with three straight losses and no big wins outside the open week survival at home versus UNI. A sweep of the last three games makes the argument interesting but ultimately Montana needs plenty of help
Big South
Should Win: Kennesaw St
Shouldn't have to worry:
Work left to do: Monmouth
Out: Cambell
This is Kennesaw conference to lose...the Owls are one of the best teams in the country and even with a slip wouldn't have to worry about a playoff birth. Monmouth after the win versus Cambell sits in a better position but they still need an impressive showing over the last four games to have a chance for a consecutive playoff birth. Cambell with back to back losses will have to wait for a full go next year
Colonial Athletic Association
Should Win: James Madison
Shouldn't have to worry: Elon, Stony Brook, Deleware
Work left to do: Towson, Maine, Rhode Island
Out:
Talk about crazy...the conference race in the CAA might be one of the best in the history of the FCS. Four teams sit at 4-1 in the conference, the other playoff contenders have no worse than 2 losses in conference, and all the teams at some point play one another in what amounts to knockout games to get into the field. You have to imagine that five teams from this conference are a stretch, so its seven teams trying to squeeze into four spots. Both the feel-good stories of Rhode Island and Maine could be knocked out of the playoff fight with losses this week. While Towson continues its end of the year gauntlet that could have them go from frontrunner to out of the playoffs altogether
Ivy League
Should Win: Princeton, Dartmouth
So you're saying there is a chance:
The Ivy League boils down to this weeks game between Princeton and Dartmouth, the winner all but assures themselves of the title and probably one that will be one flat outright with the schedules for both the rest of the way. I really wish I could go to the game
MEAC
Should Win: Florida A&M
So you're saying there is a chance: N. Carolina A&T, Howard
So this one is simple...Florida A&M wins today versus Howard they are the MEAC champs, lose then it opens the door for both Howard and NC A&T, but only a tiny bit. The Rattlers would have to implode for either one to get the Celebration Bowl.
The realistic chance is for the Aggies to get an at-large birth in the playoffs. Its happened to them before a couple years ago and with the wins @ E. Carolina and Jacksonville St, winning out gets them into the playoffs and maybe even a favorable draw.
Missouri Valley
Should Win: North Dakota St
Shouldn't have to worry: South Dakota St
Work left to do: Northern Iowa, Western Illinois, Illinois St
Out: Missouri St, Youngstown St, South Dakota
North Dakota St is in, they win the conference title with a win today. South Dakota St is all but in, but have a couple tricky games left that could trip them up with a flat performance in either this weeks game versus Missouri St or in-state rival South Dakota
The group that has some work left to do is very interesting. Both UNI and Western need to win out and probably need some help to get in. UNI has a tough task this week with fellow bubble team Illinois St who at 2-3 in conference needs to look good the rest of the way to get to 8-3. Western has tricky road games the next two weeks including @South Dakota and a better than expected Indiana St team who could be playing spoiler
Northeast Conference
Should Win: Sacred Heart
Shouldn't have to worry:
Work left to do: Central Conn St, Duquesne
Out:
Its simple, Sacred Heart wins out they are the NEC champion. A loss to Duquesne would give the Dukes the inside track if they win out. CCSU also is in the mix for the title but need to win out and have both Sacred Heart (2x) and Duquesne to lose in order to get the automatic bid. This is a one-bid league
Ohio Valley
Should Win: Southeast Missouri St
Shouldn't have to worry: Jacksonville St
Work left to do:
Out: Murray St
So here the deal, SEMO wins out they get the automatic bid and the schedule is such where it is a likely scenario they are pretty hot right now. If they trip up it will be interesting to see if they get in with two conference losses, it would definitely depend on how the rest play out to see if they are another OVC team to get left out.
Jacksonville St should get in no matter what but would stress a bit with a loss and if it was a conference loss things really become tense as they would then need to beat Kennesaw to secure a spot
Patriot League
Should Win: Colgate
Shouldn't have to worry:
Work left to do:
Out: Georgetown
It goes without saying the Colgate is one of the more interesting teams in the league. The defense is incredible but the level of competition brings on questions of if they could show the same defensive performance versus higher quality teams. Needless to say, we will find out in the playoffs because it would take a few miracles for anyone other than Colgate to make the playoffs in the Patriot League
Pioneer League
Should Win: San Diego
Shouldn't have to worry:
Work left to do: Stetson, Drake
Out:
San Diego has the inside track towards another playoff birth, if they get by Drake then the title is all but theirs again. A loss could open the doors for possibilities...a whole lot of possibilities. One possible one being four teams deadlocked at 5-1 in the conference and each holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over one another
Southern Conference
Should Win: Wofford
Shouldn't have to worry: ETSU
Work left to do: Samford, Chattanooga
Out: Mercer, Furman
Yes, Wofford can clinch the title today, but it needs a lot of stuff to happen in order to get it done. If they get by Samford then they should clinch without the rest of the fun needed today. ETSU should be okay to get in but need one more win to avoid any issues since they have a non D-I victory on the talley. Chattanooga should also be alright but needs to take care of business in the conference because they end the season @S. Carolina
Southland
Should Win: Central Arkansas
Shouldn't have to worry: McNeese, Nicholls
Work left to do: Sam Houston St
So you're saying there is a chance: UIW, Abilene Christian
Now, this one won't go team by team and talk about the prospects of each cause the next couple of weeks can clear things up nicely. Plus, I don't want to write 40+ outlooks...the one last year took forever, although it did get the most reads (go figure)
So we shall do it like this, go thru each conference (yes even the MEAC, SWAC, and Ivy League) and say who should win the conference, who shouldn't have to worry about the bubble and get into the playoffs, and who will be floating on the bubble wondering. And for the other three conferences, just who will win the conference (The MEAC and IVY League need to have championship games).
Big Sky
Should Win: UC Davis
Shouldn't have to worry: E. Washington, Weber St
Work left to do: Idaho St, Montana St
Out: N. Arizona, Idaho, Portland St, Montana
The top 3 teams in the Big Sky have little to worry about, neither has a bad loss on the record and while E. Washinton does have a non D-I victory, the Eagles should be fine even without a loss. If Idaho St maintains form and goes into the Weber St game with its 3 losses it should be ok with a loss but a perfect record makes that point mute with a top 10 triumph. Montana St is holding on by a thread, it not only has to go undefeated but would probably need Western Illinois to do the same to boost both teams resumes as the group of 7-4 teams on the cusp should be grand.
Of the team in the "Out" section, Montana still has a chance but is trending down with three straight losses and no big wins outside the open week survival at home versus UNI. A sweep of the last three games makes the argument interesting but ultimately Montana needs plenty of help
Big South
Should Win: Kennesaw St
Shouldn't have to worry:
Work left to do: Monmouth
Out: Cambell
This is Kennesaw conference to lose...the Owls are one of the best teams in the country and even with a slip wouldn't have to worry about a playoff birth. Monmouth after the win versus Cambell sits in a better position but they still need an impressive showing over the last four games to have a chance for a consecutive playoff birth. Cambell with back to back losses will have to wait for a full go next year
Colonial Athletic Association
Should Win: James Madison
Shouldn't have to worry: Elon, Stony Brook, Deleware
Work left to do: Towson, Maine, Rhode Island
Out:
Talk about crazy...the conference race in the CAA might be one of the best in the history of the FCS. Four teams sit at 4-1 in the conference, the other playoff contenders have no worse than 2 losses in conference, and all the teams at some point play one another in what amounts to knockout games to get into the field. You have to imagine that five teams from this conference are a stretch, so its seven teams trying to squeeze into four spots. Both the feel-good stories of Rhode Island and Maine could be knocked out of the playoff fight with losses this week. While Towson continues its end of the year gauntlet that could have them go from frontrunner to out of the playoffs altogether
Ivy League
Should Win: Princeton, Dartmouth
So you're saying there is a chance:
The Ivy League boils down to this weeks game between Princeton and Dartmouth, the winner all but assures themselves of the title and probably one that will be one flat outright with the schedules for both the rest of the way. I really wish I could go to the game
MEAC
Should Win: Florida A&M
So you're saying there is a chance: N. Carolina A&T, Howard
So this one is simple...Florida A&M wins today versus Howard they are the MEAC champs, lose then it opens the door for both Howard and NC A&T, but only a tiny bit. The Rattlers would have to implode for either one to get the Celebration Bowl.
The realistic chance is for the Aggies to get an at-large birth in the playoffs. Its happened to them before a couple years ago and with the wins @ E. Carolina and Jacksonville St, winning out gets them into the playoffs and maybe even a favorable draw.
Missouri Valley
Should Win: North Dakota St
Shouldn't have to worry: South Dakota St
Work left to do: Northern Iowa, Western Illinois, Illinois St
Out: Missouri St, Youngstown St, South Dakota
North Dakota St is in, they win the conference title with a win today. South Dakota St is all but in, but have a couple tricky games left that could trip them up with a flat performance in either this weeks game versus Missouri St or in-state rival South Dakota
The group that has some work left to do is very interesting. Both UNI and Western need to win out and probably need some help to get in. UNI has a tough task this week with fellow bubble team Illinois St who at 2-3 in conference needs to look good the rest of the way to get to 8-3. Western has tricky road games the next two weeks including @South Dakota and a better than expected Indiana St team who could be playing spoiler
Northeast Conference
Should Win: Sacred Heart
Shouldn't have to worry:
Work left to do: Central Conn St, Duquesne
Out:
Its simple, Sacred Heart wins out they are the NEC champion. A loss to Duquesne would give the Dukes the inside track if they win out. CCSU also is in the mix for the title but need to win out and have both Sacred Heart (2x) and Duquesne to lose in order to get the automatic bid. This is a one-bid league
Ohio Valley
Should Win: Southeast Missouri St
Shouldn't have to worry: Jacksonville St
Work left to do:
Out: Murray St
So here the deal, SEMO wins out they get the automatic bid and the schedule is such where it is a likely scenario they are pretty hot right now. If they trip up it will be interesting to see if they get in with two conference losses, it would definitely depend on how the rest play out to see if they are another OVC team to get left out.
Jacksonville St should get in no matter what but would stress a bit with a loss and if it was a conference loss things really become tense as they would then need to beat Kennesaw to secure a spot
Patriot League
Should Win: Colgate
Shouldn't have to worry:
Work left to do:
Out: Georgetown
It goes without saying the Colgate is one of the more interesting teams in the league. The defense is incredible but the level of competition brings on questions of if they could show the same defensive performance versus higher quality teams. Needless to say, we will find out in the playoffs because it would take a few miracles for anyone other than Colgate to make the playoffs in the Patriot League
Pioneer League
Should Win: San Diego
Shouldn't have to worry:
Work left to do: Stetson, Drake
Out:
San Diego has the inside track towards another playoff birth, if they get by Drake then the title is all but theirs again. A loss could open the doors for possibilities...a whole lot of possibilities. One possible one being four teams deadlocked at 5-1 in the conference and each holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over one another
Southern Conference
Should Win: Wofford
Shouldn't have to worry: ETSU
Work left to do: Samford, Chattanooga
Out: Mercer, Furman
Yes, Wofford can clinch the title today, but it needs a lot of stuff to happen in order to get it done. If they get by Samford then they should clinch without the rest of the fun needed today. ETSU should be okay to get in but need one more win to avoid any issues since they have a non D-I victory on the talley. Chattanooga should also be alright but needs to take care of business in the conference because they end the season @S. Carolina
Southland
Should Win: Central Arkansas
Shouldn't have to worry: McNeese, Nicholls
Work left to do: Sam Houston St
So you're saying there is a chance: UIW, Abilene Christian
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