So its been almost a year since I've been doing this, other posts aside, which is pretty cool. Hopefully, I start turning up the dial on things doing a little bit more but a solid start. Anyways
With the Selection Sunday only a couple weeks away the race for the playoff is reaching its final stretch. And the fun part, there are so many teams who look to have that final push to get in the dance. Some who, just a few weeks ago was left for dead (Samford), to the ones who are fading very fast (Illinois State). So unlike last year where I talked about 35 teams, not sure what the hell I was thinking, stick to the one that is on the playoff bubble. For reference, that will be the ones at 6-3 or 5-4 in power conferences or in some cases in lower conferences with big wins. Oh, one more note...not every 5-4 team will be in the bubble lis.
Big Sky
Locks:
E. Washington, UC-Davis, Weber St
Bubble:
Idaho St: 6-3 (5-1)
Remaining: @Cal Poly, Weber St
The Bengals are right on the cusp of the playoffs but need to win both games in order to all but guarantee them a playoff birth. Split the remaining two games and the opening week victory versus Western St comes into play because it will leave them with only six Division I victories. This is one of the few teams on this list that holds its playoff chances in their own hands
Montana: 5-4 (3-3)
Remaining: @Idaho, Montana St
This is a sinking ship that may yet have itself if it wins the last two games. Though the damage already done may be too great to overcome. While it started 4-1, a three-game losing streak followed with a bad home loss to Portland St that looks better than first at first glance. The Griz is linked to a pair of Missouri Valley teams in UNI and Western Ill as if they both keep winning, it makes them look a lot better
Montana St: 5-4 (3-3)
Remaining: N. Colo, @Montana
While there are a lot of similarities between the Griz and the Bobcats, the major differences are that Montana St does have a victory over WIU and has no real bad losses on the record. But also at the same time when an opening week comeback versus WIU is your biggest win, you have to stress a bit. And while help is not as much needed as Montana, Montana St needs to win out and have a couple teams around it stumble in order to get into the playoffs for the first time in a couple years
Big Sky
Locks:
Kennesaw St
Bubble
Monmouth: 7-2 (3-0)
Remaining: Kennesaw St, @Gardener-Webb
The problem with the case for Monmouth is pretty simple, this year they have lost to the two best teams on the schedule and they aren't as good as last year's playoff at-large team (and they were wiped out by an average N. Iowa team in the 1st round). Those two factors makes this Saturday's game at home versus Kennesaw so important. A win gives them the conference and the auto bid, a loss doesn't eliminate them but they will have to have to have an impressive showing on the road to get the attention of the committee. The weather will be on their side, plus some in the Owl camp might be looking ahead to the rivalry game versus Jacksonville St the next week (odd seeing that they are playing for a conference title)
CAA
Locks:
None
Bubble
Delaware: 7-2 (5-1)
Remaining: @Stony Brook, Villanova
Go figure the conference with the most teams with a chance to get into the playoffs all has just a clear of a path to miss the playoffs altogether. The Blue Hens are the one team that is closest to the playoffs. With a win in either game, they should be able to get in as an at-large...win both and they shouldn't have to worry as they will be the conference champ and have the auto-bid.
Maine: 6-3 (5-1)
Remaining: @Richmond, Elon
Here is the problem with Maine, yes they have an FBS (W. Kentucky) win on their resume but they also have two really bad losses (@Yale, @William & Mary) that might keep them from the playoffs. But then you look that they are 5-1 in conference and it makes them look so much better, unfortunately, a slip up in the last two weeks and they could be one of those high ranked teams that get left on the bubble because of the profiles of others around them
Elon: 6-2 (4-1)
Remaining: Towson, @Maine
Elon is in a rough spot, the canceled game versus W&M may end up hurting them in the end because that lost game would be really helpful with a tough two-game stretch to end the year. 7-3 just might not cut it because of all of the other teams that will have an extra game and extra bullet points on the resume. On the flip, win both games and a Top 8 seed could happen in back-to-back years
Towson: 6-3 (4-2)
Remaining: @Elon, James Madison
A couple weeks ago this was an undefeated team in the CAA and staring a playoff birth in the face...two weeks from now they could easily be on a four-game losing streak and seeing everyone pass them by. They are in the middle of a brutal four-game stretch and now face the best of the bunch and probably will end with a super desperate James Madison team. Yes, a split probably gets them in but losing 3 of 4 to end the year is not a good look.
James Madison: 6-3 (4-2)
Remaining: Rhode Island, @Towson
This is strange, the Dukes are in serious danger of missing the playoffs with a loss in the next two games. Yea, to pump the breaks a little, the reputation of the program should get them in at 7-4 but the fact they are even in the position shows the depth of the CAA this year. But neither of these games are gimmies...Rhode Island is better than the 5-4 record and going on the road to Towson to end the season will probably be an elimination game
Stony Brook: 6-3 (4-2)
Remaining: Delaware, @Albany
How close the Seawolves were from being in the lock section. Couple weeks ago they had James Madison on the ropes and managed to have the Dukes wiggle out at the last second. If they take care of business at home this weekend then a ticket should be punched but a sweep would guarantee that fact. Even with a trip up versus Delaware, beating Albany should be enough for Long Island's team
Rhode Island: 5-4 (3-3)
Remaining: @James Madison, New Hampshire
Is there a chance for the Rams to get into the playoffs? Yes, very much so...the problem is that they are gonna be dealing with a very angry James Madison team who needs a win just as badly as Rhode Island. Oh, they have to end the season with New Hampshire who could running hot to end the season and would look to play spoiler. Its a stretch but if the Rams win out, they could sneak into the playoffs
Missouri Valley
Locks:
North Dakota St, South Dakota St.
Bubble:
Western Illinois: 5-4 (4-2)
Remaining: @South Dakota, Indiana St
Left for dead after a humbling at home at the hands of NDSU, the Necks have won three in a row including twice over ranked teams and one impressive comeback last week that summed up the season to date. While the records may not show it, both the Coyotes and Sycamores are good enough to ruin WIU's current run. Winning out puts them in at least a tie for second in the top conference in the FCS with six wins...hard to keep a team out with that claim and a strength of schedule that is one of toughest in all of the FCS
Northern Iowa: 5-4 (4-2)
Remaining: @Youngstown St, Missouri St
A team that has been a mixed bag. One week they look like one of the best teams in the country, the next they look like an average team who may miss the playoffs. These last two games will show which team is the real UNI. Youngstown is underperforming, but ask NDSU how tough they can be and it is in Ohio in November, not a fun time of the year in that stadium. Get by that and you get a Missouri St team that is good but fell under the pressure of the MVFC but has some impressive victories. Get past those two...then you got something
Illinois State: 5-4 (2-4)
Remaining: @Indiana St, Youngstown St
Three games ago this was a Top 10 teams and there were thoughts of a run just like one that happened a few years ago in 2014. Three rough losses later, the Redbirds are in an elimination game versus Indiana St in a hot vs cold matchup in one of the worst places to play a football game. If Illinois St can right the ship and win the last two games, it does have something not many in the FCS have... an FBS victory. They also have a non D-I victory so it makes things rough
Indiana State: 5-4 (3-3)
Remaining: Indiana St, @WIU
Is it possible for the Sycamores to get into the playoffs...yeah it is but the road is long. They would have to win out and have a lot of chaos happen because unfortunately, they will only have at best six D-I victories this year. Its an uphill battle but it is possible
SoCon
Locks:
ETSU
Bubble:
Wofford: 6-3 (5-2)
Remaining: @W. Carolina, Presbyterian
A team that is probably more of a lock than a bubble team the Terriers have two very winnable games left but if they lose either it would be a hard gut punch to deal with. And WCU is a very tricky road game to play. So this is one of those teams that's 95% of the way there but just needs to get up that last step
Samford: 5-4 (4-2)
Remaining: @Citadel, @ETSU
So here's the thing, its a really simple scenario for the Bulldogs...win out get the auto-bid and a conference championship. Lose either game and the comeback will fall just short. And to think they were about a quarter away from beating Florida St
Chattanooga: 6-3 (4-3)
Remaining: Mercer, @S. Carolina
Can someone explain to me why the Mocs are playing S. Carolina at the end of the year? Why does the SEC do this still? Anyway, the prospects of getting into the playoffs because of the end of the year FBS bout are very small. A win this weekend is an absolute must and even then a lot of help is needed. Now, of course, pull off the huge upset and worry gets thrown out the window
Southland
Locks
None
Bubble
Nicholls St: 6-3 (5-2)
Remaining: SFA, SE LA
Winning out gets them into the playoffs and possibly the auto-bid. Split the last two games, some doubt will creep in but remember last year they got in as a 7-4 team and almost made a deep run. It is possible, even with the higher expectations at the start of the year, that Nicholls can get in without 8 wins
McNeese St: 6-3 (5-2)
Remaining: Northwestern St, @Lamar
A couple weeks ago this team was cruising towards the Southland conference title and since the bye week, they have looked anything but the dominant team from the start of the year. Now all can be well with wins in the last two games but it isn't a guarantee when you look at the recent performances
Central Arkansas: 5-4 (4-3)
Remaining: UIW, @Abilene Christian
Another team that had expectations that have fallen short but still has a chance to get the ship righted and gets into the playoffs. Like all teams 5-4, they need to win out and get some help. Neither game will be easy as the Cardinals and Wildcats both have a backdoor chance into the playoffs (though closing fast)
Sam Houston St: 5-4 (4-3)
Remaining: Abilene Christian, @ Houston Baptist
Needless to say there has been a drop off with the Bearkats this year, there was some expected but not to this level. This is a team all year that has had some near escapes, add that to the bad losses and there is a serious uphill climb to get back to the playoffs once again.
Locks:
North Dakota St, South Dakota St.
Bubble:
Western Illinois: 5-4 (4-2)
Remaining: @South Dakota, Indiana St
Left for dead after a humbling at home at the hands of NDSU, the Necks have won three in a row including twice over ranked teams and one impressive comeback last week that summed up the season to date. While the records may not show it, both the Coyotes and Sycamores are good enough to ruin WIU's current run. Winning out puts them in at least a tie for second in the top conference in the FCS with six wins...hard to keep a team out with that claim and a strength of schedule that is one of toughest in all of the FCS
Northern Iowa: 5-4 (4-2)
Remaining: @Youngstown St, Missouri St
A team that has been a mixed bag. One week they look like one of the best teams in the country, the next they look like an average team who may miss the playoffs. These last two games will show which team is the real UNI. Youngstown is underperforming, but ask NDSU how tough they can be and it is in Ohio in November, not a fun time of the year in that stadium. Get by that and you get a Missouri St team that is good but fell under the pressure of the MVFC but has some impressive victories. Get past those two...then you got something
Illinois State: 5-4 (2-4)
Remaining: @Indiana St, Youngstown St
Three games ago this was a Top 10 teams and there were thoughts of a run just like one that happened a few years ago in 2014. Three rough losses later, the Redbirds are in an elimination game versus Indiana St in a hot vs cold matchup in one of the worst places to play a football game. If Illinois St can right the ship and win the last two games, it does have something not many in the FCS have... an FBS victory. They also have a non D-I victory so it makes things rough
Indiana State: 5-4 (3-3)
Remaining: Indiana St, @WIU
Is it possible for the Sycamores to get into the playoffs...yeah it is but the road is long. They would have to win out and have a lot of chaos happen because unfortunately, they will only have at best six D-I victories this year. Its an uphill battle but it is possible
SoCon
Locks:
ETSU
Bubble:
Wofford: 6-3 (5-2)
Remaining: @W. Carolina, Presbyterian
A team that is probably more of a lock than a bubble team the Terriers have two very winnable games left but if they lose either it would be a hard gut punch to deal with. And WCU is a very tricky road game to play. So this is one of those teams that's 95% of the way there but just needs to get up that last step
Samford: 5-4 (4-2)
Remaining: @Citadel, @ETSU
So here's the thing, its a really simple scenario for the Bulldogs...win out get the auto-bid and a conference championship. Lose either game and the comeback will fall just short. And to think they were about a quarter away from beating Florida St
Chattanooga: 6-3 (4-3)
Remaining: Mercer, @S. Carolina
Can someone explain to me why the Mocs are playing S. Carolina at the end of the year? Why does the SEC do this still? Anyway, the prospects of getting into the playoffs because of the end of the year FBS bout are very small. A win this weekend is an absolute must and even then a lot of help is needed. Now, of course, pull off the huge upset and worry gets thrown out the window
Southland
Locks
None
Bubble
Nicholls St: 6-3 (5-2)
Remaining: SFA, SE LA
Winning out gets them into the playoffs and possibly the auto-bid. Split the last two games, some doubt will creep in but remember last year they got in as a 7-4 team and almost made a deep run. It is possible, even with the higher expectations at the start of the year, that Nicholls can get in without 8 wins
McNeese St: 6-3 (5-2)
Remaining: Northwestern St, @Lamar
A couple weeks ago this team was cruising towards the Southland conference title and since the bye week, they have looked anything but the dominant team from the start of the year. Now all can be well with wins in the last two games but it isn't a guarantee when you look at the recent performances
Central Arkansas: 5-4 (4-3)
Remaining: UIW, @Abilene Christian
Another team that had expectations that have fallen short but still has a chance to get the ship righted and gets into the playoffs. Like all teams 5-4, they need to win out and get some help. Neither game will be easy as the Cardinals and Wildcats both have a backdoor chance into the playoffs (though closing fast)
Sam Houston St: 5-4 (4-3)
Remaining: Abilene Christian, @ Houston Baptist
Needless to say there has been a drop off with the Bearkats this year, there was some expected but not to this level. This is a team all year that has had some near escapes, add that to the bad losses and there is a serious uphill climb to get back to the playoffs once again.
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